PHBS Think Tank Releases Q1 2025 Macroeconomic Report

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Stable Real Estate Recovery and Steady Growth in the New Economy

SHENZHEN, China, April 17, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- The PHBS Think Tank at Peking University HSBC Business School released its Macroeconomic Analysis Report for the First Quarter of 2025, highlighting a strong start to the year for the Chinese economy. In January and February, production exceeded expectations, and the cumulative trade surplus reached a historical high for the period. However, consumption and investment grew at a slower pace.

The report outlines four key macroeconomic trends from the first quarter:

1. Real Estate Market Stabilizes with Policy Support
   Policy-driven measures have helped stabilize the real estate sector, with major markets showing signs of gradual recovery.
2. Positive Feedback Loop in Auto Exports
   Investment, production, and expectations in overseas automobile markets reinforced each other in a positive cycle. Based on available data, leading enterprises remained optimistic about the impact of tariffs on new energy vehicles.
3. Support for the Development of New Economy
   Domestic industrial policies supported investment, production, and retail in sectors such as electronics and transport equipment, helping sustain a growth cycle in new economy.
4. Rush to Export, with Tariff Uncertainty Ahead
   A surge in exports drove temporary growth in labor-intensive goods and home appliance production. However, this momentum faces risks from future U.S. tariffs. Many enterprises have already taken steps to mitigate potential disruptions.

Looking ahead to the first half of 2025, GDP growth is projected to reach 5.0%. Export pressure may intensify in Q2 2025, and current policies may not be strong enough to significantly boost consumption. The real estate market is expected to continue its steady recovery, while manufacturers will likely expand their use of automation and smart technologies to reduce costs.

The report offers several policy recommendations: strengthen support for enterprises expanding globally through vertical specialization; boost the effectiveness of fiscal policies to stimulate consumption; ensure this year's land reserve special bond issuance reaches at least 700 billion yuan; and accelerate fiscal and tax reforms to address structural unemployment driven by technological change.